BEST PICTURE
Probably will win: The Social Network
I hope will win: The King's Speech
I have a feeling that The Social Network will rack up the awards as Facebook has taken the world by storm, and apparently 2010 was a big year for it. Mark Zuckerburg was TIME's Person of the Year and FB is becoming ubiquitous, so why wouldn't it win? Also, it won the same category at the Golden Globes. HOWEVER, The King's Speech was all about the classic movie experience. Great story, not boringly historical, all star actors, enchanting characters; it was just a nearly perfect movie. I didn't want it to end, but when it did, it was satisfying. Like a good book, but for watching.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Probably will win: Colin Firth
I hope will win: Colin Firth
I adore Colin's characters. He does not disappoint. Also, he's all over the magazines and he's already won this one at the Golden Globes. He deserves to have a statue for every room in his house.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Probably will win: Christian Bale
I hope will win: Christian Bale
Already won this at the Golden Globes. He is transcendent. Transformative. Also, it seemed to me he was more of a co-leading man than a supporting actor, but whatever. He'll win.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Probably will win: Natalie Portman
I hope will win: Natalie Portman
She already won it at the Golden Globes and there's really no contest that she'll win again. Admittedly, I've only seen 2 out of the 5 nominated movies, and out of the two, Annette Bening is not going to win (although The Kids Are All Right was very good, but not particularly because of Mrs. Warren Beatty) mostly because being a lesbian with a drinking problem is not enough to win; you need to go ass out crazy and hallucinate that you had sex with yourself but not quite yourself as played by Mila Kunis. Although, I did not care for Black Swan at all. At All.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Probably will win: Melissa Leo
I hope will win: Hailee Steinfeld
The Fighter was fantastic and Melissa Leo brought her character to reality. But Hailee Steinfeld (again not sure why she is considered "supporting" as the story line was about her character as much as it was about Jeff Bridges' Rooster) was superb as the wise talking gritty revengeful girl.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Probably will win: Toy Story 3
I hope will win: tie between Toy Story 3 and How To Train Your Dragon
This is like picking your favorite child. You secretly have one, but it changes daily. Toy Story is one of my all time favorite movies ever in the history of my life. I was Woody for Halloween in high school (we placed like 3rd in the costume contest with my best friend as Buzz), I adore all things Buzz Lightyear, and I love love love toys. And Pixar, no one can touch Pixar. Dreamworks is coming close, but Pixar's always a nanosecond in the lead. Now. How To Train Your Dragon. This is what 3D was waiting for. The movie was thrilling in 3D and I fell in love. I also have an affinity for dragons. And the story was one of those solid, moral "everyone would be better if we just all learned from this movie" kind of movie.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Guess: True Grit
This movie has got to win something! The Coen's always choose beautiful scenery, landscapes, open spaces. But, ya know, like a gritty kind this time.
COSTUME DESIGN
Probably will win: Alice in Wonderland
I hope will win: Alice in Wonderland
Even though this movie totally disappointed me in a way that I really can't even access because it runs so deeply, the costuming was brilliant. Not what I would have chosen for such a classic, close-to-my-heart-and-have-seen-it-one-million-times-in-my-imagination, but good enough because I can understand that no one else can really see what's in my mind's eye. Oh but if they could.
DIRECTING
Probably will win: The Social Network
I hope will win: The King's Speech or The Social Network
I get that directing a film (and also writing one) about the internet and a social networking site -- which people typically use alone in a most uninteresting way -- was probably incredibly challenging. But I just loved The King's Speech so much. BUT I'll give it up to The Social Network, A for effort in making a boring topic surprisingly engaging.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
How terrible. I haven't seen any documentaries.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Not even the short ones.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Probably will win: The Social Network (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
I hope will win: The Social Network or Inception
I think that straight up, The Social Network had a traditional, but awesome soundtrack, mostly because Trent Reznor is pretty awesome and I'm glad that his name is back out there (btw anyone want to make me a NIN mix?). BUT I loved the ingenious creativity behind the use of Inception's soundtrack; the slowing or speeding up of of the Edith Piaf song "Non, je ne Regrette Rien" as sound effect and as part of the story.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Probably will win: Inception
I hope will win: Inception
As far as I'm concerned, other than the animated films, there was no other movie that was more visually mind blowing than Inception.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREEN PLAY)
Probably will win: The Social Network
I hope will win: True Grit
Again, The Social Network's premise is incredibly bo-ring, so bravo to making court documents and FB seem far more interesting than it really is. True Grit's dialogue rivaled The Social Network's feverishly fast paced dialogue with smart quips too many to recall. The Coens are Oscar movie making machines.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREEN PLAY)
Probably will win: Inception
I hope will win: Inception
I'm sure, dollars to doughnuts, that there was no movie in the running as original as Inception.
